Kevin Byrne- Irish Sun reporter. Read Kevin’s boxing column ‘Seconds Out’ in the Sun every Saturday.

I don’t generally believe in fairytales so I can’t say I buy into the theory that Martin Rogan is somehow going to knock out Tyson Fury. I just can’t see it happening.

For Rogan to pull it off would cap an unlikely story.

He’s not fought since November 2010. His last meaningful fight was a year before that. He’s smaller, lighter.

Maybe the fact that he’s the home fighter in one of the biggest nights of his sporting life will work in his favour, but maybe it won’t and the pressure will affect his game.

Fury is obviously beatable but at the same time he’s a better fighter than Sam Sexton. Wobbled by Firtha, bowled over by Pajkic, can Rogan land a big shot en route to a shock?

I don’t think so. His come-forward pressure style relies on the other guy letting him play that game and why would Fury, with all his advantages, let that happen? If Rogan had the ‘big punch’ in his locker I’d give him more of a chance too, but he doesn’t.

I expect a few solid rounds from Rogan but the fight to go a similar way to Fury’s last few. He’ll suck up the challenge and his rival will find those 1-2s too much to handle, even if Fury doesn’t do too much more. They hurt when the man throwing them is 6ft 9in with the guts of 20 stone behind him.

His jab is key and if Fury boxes him there’s a stoppage for him here too, though I don’t expect Rogan to go quietly, possibly to retire via injury in and around the sixth.

But the playing field will be levelled somewhat if Fury doesn’t come in his best shape while we can guarantee that this time Rogan will.

Verdict: Fury TKO6

With giving away 17 years and not having fought in almost a year and a half, it’s hard to see Rogie doing it – but he certainly won’t go down without a fight.

IT’S now about a year and a half since Martin Rogan last fought and two and a half years since his last meaningful contest against Sam Sexton. Given the Belfast man’s age (he turns 41 in May) and his inactivity it hardly bodes well for a contest against an up and comer like Fury.

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However, this time around he is also fighting father time and the great God of ring rust. With these factors in mind I believe that Rogan has a four round window in which to stake his claim. He must get inside Fury early, push him on to the back foot and land big when his opponent is off balance. Fury was hit, hurt and floored against Neven Pajkic last time out and Rogan can do this as well. With this in mind I would expect Fury to be respectful in the opening exchanges, conceding ground in a controlled manner, moving to the side to avoid a charging Rogan and picking him off as he comes through. If he doesn’t he risks being trapped on the ropes and in the corners where Rogan can unload and spring an upset. But after four rounds, as Rogan begins to tire, Fury should step up his assault, pouring more shots in on a slowing opponent leading to a stoppage by around the seventh round.

This is the outcome I’m going for, largely based on Rogan’s inactivity- and not on how I would view a match up between the duo on more even terms.

MARTIN Rogan isn’t your stereo typical underdog.

The Belfast fighter is more rot wilier than chiwawa. He is the snarling under dog that bites if your not careful.

He loves nothing more than to sink his teeth into foes in a bid to sink a hole in the pockets of the people that bet against him.

He revels in the doubt and rejoices in proving people wrong. He wasn’t expected to defeat Audley Harrison, was tipped by few to knock out Matt Skelton and was no ones favourite going into the inaugural Prizefighter.

This Saturday night and his heavyweight clash with former Commonwealth champ provides him with one more chance to defy the odds.

But unfortunately for one the best characters in Irish boxing I think the under dog comes into this fight muzzled.

Age and inactivity will prove the kryptonite that eventually defeats Rogan.

Rogan hasn’t fought in over a year and his last meaningful fight was over two years ago. Any fighter that trades leather with Fury does have a punchers chance. Fury’s 100 percent ratio has been in serious jeopardy n a number of occasions. His chin is most certainly his Achilles heel. Rogan will get one chance to reverse the old adage and turn the man mountain in to a mole hill, but I feel age and ring rust will prevent him from taking it.

Fury will fight at the end of one of the longest jabs in boxing. The fact he has got himself into the best shape of his career proves he rates Rogan’s chances better than I do. He has more respect for Rogan than any of his previous foes and as result will be a bit more thoughtful about where he puts his chin. The inside information provided from working with John Breen, Rogan’s old coach, will also give the 23 year old an edge and an added confidence.

Rogan will come forward, battle hard and fight till his arms fall off. However I feel Fury’s physical attributes, sheer size and skill set will ensure he beats the battler in Belfast. Rogan’s pride, I feel will prevent him from being stopped.

EVERYTHING seems against Martin Rogan – age, odds, record – and while it remains difficult to rule the Belfast man out on Saturday night, nearly all signs point to a Tyson Fury win. However, the ‘one-punch’ factor so often put forward by long-shots, no-hopers or eternal optimists is a realistically possible dynamic.

Although Fury is arguably the best prospect in heavyweight boxing, the fact remains that in both of his most recent bouts the 23-year-old was in real danger and a more clinical opponent could have stopped the Manchester-Irishman.

Trying to land his jab, somewhat unnecessarily, off the break against Nicolai Firtha, Fury was caught by a big overhand right with over a minute and a half left in round three. His guard was down at the time and the error was repeated with more dramatic consequences in his next and most recent bout.

Against Neven Pajkic, Fury once again left his guard down often and was floored for the first time in his pro career. Caught with a minute to go in round two – again an overhand right landed on the button – with Pajkic throwing from a crouching position.

If Mick Hennessy was a script writer, he couldn’t pen a more ideal tale for one of his promotions than the drama which Fury brings – a hot favourite, caught surprisingly in trouble but who manages to survive and turn the tide to stop his opponent in front of a live terrestrial audience of millions. It’s almost as though he does it on purpose.

That is, of course, a ridiculous theory but not one without its merits when it comes to Fury’s mind-set; both the fighter himself and Hennessy have admitted that he seems to struggle when facing a lower-calibre of opposition – a theory supported somewhat by his more rounded display against a better fighter in Derek Chisora.

He seems to leave himself more open when not mentally – and physically, it must be said – prepared. And it is the reason Rogan stands a chance.